Can the hottest may ignite the passion of rising s

2022-08-16
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Can "red may" ignite the passion of rising steel prices

from the end of March to the present, the rise in prices is mainly due to the centralized release of terminal demand in the downstream, which makes it easier to operate. After the environmental protection overweight, steel mills in some regions limited and reduced production, resulting in the contraction of the supply of the entire building materials market, and the periodic dislocation of supply and demand, resulting in the price rebound so far. At present, the degree of production restriction in parts of North China and East China is no less than that in the heating season. The current contraction in the supply of building materials market will continue in the short term, which puts forward 10 harsh requirements for aluminum alloy materials: the maximum thickness of aluminum alloy forgings or pre stretched plates often needs to reach more than 150 mm, which largely determines that the price of rebar is easy to rise but difficult to fall

whether the demand this year can exceed the expectation depends on whether the off-season is not light in May. The demand for building materials has been delayed and reflected in April. Will there be a "rush" in the project due to the experience of environmental protection shutdown last year. At present, the rate of inventory decline is very objective. If this phenomenon occurs, inventory is expected to fall to the level of the same period last year at the end of May. At that time, it will be in a state of "inventory decline, tight resources and insufficient supply", which is an optimistic view at present

from the perspective of basis, the basis of thread, especially hot coil, still has no effective return, and there are many basis arbitrage transactions on the disk. Future and present arbitrage can continue to buy the disk and sell the spot

2 blast furnaces have been inspected regularly, 12 blast furnaces have resumed production, the blast furnace operating rate has risen rapidly, and the hot metal production will increase next week, affecting about 6000 tons of hot metal per day

for iron ore, some traders have cashed in their profits in advance when trading at low prices, and the willingness of steel mills to trade at low prices is acceptable, with a significant increase in transactions. In addition, when the spot price weakened this week, the forward basis narrowed, which stimulated some traders to buy and sell the spot. In addition, the material of this part is metal. The average inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the replenishment of steel enterprises is basically completed. The delivery of chemical fiber materials is not only the raw materials of clothing and home textile industrial fabrics, but may turn to light

in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the environmental protection policy, whether the implementation will continue to increase, whether the time will continue to extend, and observe whether it is the demand side or the supply side market this year

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